The other way to reverse gains in concealed carry would be for Congress--not Obama--to enact a federal ban.

Obama cannot do either except by an act of Congress. And Congress is very unlikely to do either. Congress has more than 190 Republicans, most of whom would vote against either, plus well over 100 Democrats who are at least nominally pro-gun.

And every member of Congress remembers how Congress went Republican in 1994 for the first time in almost 50 years--by passing an "assault weapon" ban.

Particularly vivid are the memories of exactly how this happened: Bill Clinton, who had nothing to lose himself, dragged Democratic legislators to vote for the ban. And in the following election, the Democratic Speaker of the House and 100 others of those who had to be dragged lost their seats.

Democrats got back their control of Congress after 12 years as the party on the outside looking in only because of an unpopular war--and by many of them declaring themselves pro-gun.

My predictions are that Obama would never propose such legislation, and, if he did, it would never even get a committee hearing, much less pass out of committee.

In addition, both instances in which the federal government could overturn state concealed-carry laws raise grave constitutional questions.

Yes, Congress could enact a federal law conditioning receipt of federal funds on every state having a concealed-carry ban with no permit provision. Again, this is how Congress enacted the national 55 mph limit, which it later aborted.

But there is no constitutional right to drive whereas there is a constitutional right to arms. And there is the 10th Amendment, which guarantees states' rights, including the right to legislate their own laws.

Now I am not saying the Supreme Court definitely would overturn such a law. What I am saying is that it raises grave constitutional questions, and I can't see Congress passing it.

And, yes, Congress could enact a federal concealed-carry ban. We don't even have to get to the Second Amendment on this one. The first question is where does Congress get jurisdiction to pass an ordinary criminal law? And the second is, if the courts were to uphold federal a CCW ban, what would be next--a federal shoplifting ban?

The federal courts do not want to be clogged with such garbage. It's for the lowly state courts to deal with. If Congress tried to ban carrying guns, I think the lower federal courts would overturn the ban and the Supreme Court would not review the matter.

But I don't think Congress would ever pass such a ban. Having come back into power finally--courtesy of a president who, however mendaciously, avows support for the right to arms--Democrats are liable to avoid the gun issue like the plague.

They learned in 1994 that attacking guns was unendurably costly. Finally back in power, they have a vast agenda of items they believe are really important.

That agenda does not include guns and they will probably not imperil it by attacking guns.